Spatial Patterns of Solar Photovoltaic System Diffusion Kisumu County, Kenya

Abstract

Purpose: This research aligns with Sustainable Development Goal 7, contributing to the progress outlined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the commitments of the Paris Climate Agreement. Specifically, this study focuses on the spatial analysis of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, offering valuable insights for academic exploration and informing public policy decisions related to the widespread adoption of this increasingly vital renewable energy technology. The outcomes of this project transcend academic significance, extending to practical applications for energy practitioners, policymakers, academics, and future researchers. The meticulous tracking of solar PV system spatial patterns in Kisumu County yields data that not only benefits its residents but also serves as a valuable resource for the entire nation. This information will be instrumental for current energy practitioners, policymakers, academicians, and prospective researchers seeking to advance the collective knowledge in this field.

Methodology: The study adopted a Quasi-Experimental research design to explore various social phenomena, aiming to identify key facts. Utilizing statistical evidence, we conducted numerical comparisons and statistical inferences to validate or refute the research questions. Locational information on households utilizing small home systems was extracted from a secondary Solar Database. This data underwent georeferencing, enhancing our comprehension of the actual geographical distribution of households and facilitating the achievement of our research objectives. In the process of data analysis, we employed inferential statistics, specifically regression analysis, conducted using ArcGIS PRO powered by ESRI. The utilization of ArcGIS Pro extended to the creation of an empirical model. This model was designed to probe into the factors influencing the observed spatial diffusion patterns, providing a robust analytical framework for our investigation.

Findings: In the initial objective, cluster and outlier analysis unveiled a distinct low-high cluster pattern for solar home systems (SHS). The optimized hotspot analysis consistently identified SHS hotspots and cold spots within the region, particularly aligning with urban areas, notably Kisumu. The second objective exposed factors influencing diffusion, revealing negative correlations with population density, household density, and poverty rate, indicating diminished adoption in densely populated and impoverished areas. Conversely, positive correlations with income, education, and electrification rates signaled heightened adoption in wealthier, educated communities. Despite consistent diffusion trends, an empirical model underscored the substantial impact of income and electricity on SHS diffusion. The third objective disclosed that between 2016-2021, SHS diffusion contributed to the mitigation of 268,581.6 metric tons of carbon emissions.

Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: This research makes a distinctive contribution to theory by delving into the impact of solar home systems (SHS) in Kenya, particularly within the context of the country's commitment to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The theoretical foundation lies in addressing the existing gap in understanding the spatial distribution and diffusion patterns of SHS and their role in GHG reduction, aligning with Kenya's focus on renewable energy adoption.